I know I said I wasn’t going to do it but by golly it’s my blog and I do what I want. In fairness though, this is not so much about current events as it is about future ones. Somehow that distinction excuses this article.
I saw a headline that showed promising signs of movement towards peace, that Russia and Ukraine have “made progress on a 15-point peace plan”. The details of the 15 points remain a mystery, but the article contained some speculation about what the result could be. In effect, the result looks like military peace between Russia and Ukraine.
A question I’ve had, and I don’t remember if I have expressed it here on this blog in an article or comment or whether I’ve only expressed this verbally to people around me: What happens if Ukraine comes to a peace agreement that is not agreeable to the United States? I have a suspicion that we are going to have that scenario, especially with all the political bluster surrounding the defense of Ukraine. “Russia will not win in Ukraine”–and then Ukraine comes to a peace deal that (for example) allows Russia to annex the Donbas region. How will America respond to that? Surely with good natured de-escalation, right?
The problem is, even if Ukraine and Russia find some resolution to their war the moment I hit publish on this article, there is still an After-War that is inevitable. The sanctions are a big deal–do those come down as soon as the peace deal is signed, or do they stay up? Russia has started to implement counter-sanctions, the most recent one I saw being that BBC is now blocked in Russia. Besides this: What ought Russia do about all the NATO and other countries that sent military aid to Ukraine? What ought Russia do to the people who sent money? What about the “foreign mercenaries” who traveled from around the world to fight for Ukraine?
The explicit military conflict was between Russia and Ukraine, but the diplomatic war was between Russia and the world. THAT war is very far from being over.
Just to state the moral of the story explicitly: This is why it is important to remain neutral or to join a fight, and why it is dangerous to sit on the sidelines and give guns and money to the participants. Because if the side you’re supporting loses, suddenly you are a valid target–you can’t claim to have “stayed out of it”.
The After-War is going to last much longer than the War, because America is proud and we refuse to admit when we have made a mistake.
For the sake of His sorrowful passion, have mercy on us, and on the whole world.
AMDG
Times-Dispatch of Vichy Earth 